P4309 - Disproportionate Escalation in Pancreatic Cancer Burden Attributable to High BMI in 38 OECD Countries: Trends by Age, Gender, and Country, 1990–2021

Nayanika Tummala, MD¹, Chandana Tummala, MBBS², Deepika Sanapala, MBBS³, Jay Patel, MBBS⁴, Drumadala I. Gajbhiye, MBBS⁵, Uma Shailendri Rayudu, MBBS⁶, Jeel Patel, MBBS⁷, Pragathi Munnangi, MD⁸, Shivam Kalra, MBBS, MHA⁹, Gunjan Kochhar, MBBS¹⁰, Hardik Dineshbhai Desai, MBBS¹¹
1St. Mary's General Hospital, New York Medical College, Poughkeepsie, NY; 2Internal Medicine, Vydehi Institute Of Medical Sciences and Research Centre, Whitefield-560066, Bangalore, Karnataka, India, Bangalore, Karnataka, India; 3Katuri medical college, Gudivada, Andhra Pradesh, India; 4MGM Medical College, Aurangabad, Maharashtra, India-431003, Aurangabad, Maharashtra, India; 5Government Medical College and Hospital, Philadelphia, PA; 6Gitam institute of medical sciences and research, Guntur, Andhra Pradesh, India; 7Gujarat Adani Institute of Medical Sciences, Bhuj, Gujarat, India; 8BronxCare Health System, New York City, NY; 9Trident Medical Center, North Charleston, SC; 10The University Of Oklahoma Health Sciences Center, Oklahoma City, OK; 11Independent Researcher, Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India

Introduction: Pancreatic cancer (PC) represents a growing public health challenge globally, with obesity increasingly identified as a key modifiable risk factor. Understanding temporal trends in PC burden attributable to high body mass index (BMI) in economically developed regions, particularly within the OECD nations, is essential for targeted preventive strategies and resource allocation.

Methods: Using the GBD 2021 comparative risk framework, we calculated the PC burden attributable to high BMI through population attributable fraction-based estimation methods. Outcomes assessed included age-standardized mortality (ASMR), DALYs, and YLDs across 38 OECD nations, with stratification by sex, age, year and location. Long-term trends were expressed using annual percentage change (APC).

Results: The burden of PC attributable to high BMI in OECD countries increased substantially from 1990 to 2021:deaths counts rose from 1,157.6(95% UI: –942.1 to 4,642.0) to 5,831(–739 to 15,579) with an APC of 5.35%; DALYs increased from 28,721(–20,441 to 110,204) to 132,409(–9,795 to 339,833) with an APC of 5.05%; and YLDs rose from 242 (–185 to 962) to 1,231 (–121 to 3,332), reflecting an APC of 5.38%. Nationally, the highest APC increase in ASMR was observed in Portugal 9.23%, followed by France 8.85%, Colombia 6.21%, Italy 5.25%, and the United States 2.66%. The highest APC in DALYs rate (ASDALR) was in France 8.66%, followed by Portugal 7.27%, Colombia 5.59%, and the U.S. 2.38%. Age-specific analysis showed deaths rose from 122.5 to 472.4 among those aged 20–54 years (APC: 4.45%), and from 1,035.0 to 5,358.7 in individuals aged 55 years and older (APC: 5.45%). DALYs increased from 5,055.3 to 19,739.4 for the 20–54 age group (APC: 4.49%) and from 23,665.9 to 112,670.2 for the 55+ group (APC: 5.16%). Gender-wise, the overall PC burden attributable to high BMI was higher among males across all measures, with APCs for ASMR (males: 4.94%, females: 2.46%), ASDALR (males: 4.33%, females: 2.40%), and ASYLDsR (males: 4.85%, females: 2.64%).

Discussion: In 2021, OECD countries accounted for 63.27% of all deaths due to PC attributable to high BMI, globally. The rising burden in OECD countries reflects increasing obesity rates, aging populations, and inadequate early prevention. With notable surges among males and younger adults, urgent action is needed through targeted obesity prevention, metabolic health screening, and risk-based cancer surveillance.



Figure: Figure 1: Annual Percentage of Change from 1990-2021, Pancreatic Burden attributable to High BMI in 38 OECD countries, A: Age-Standardized Death Rate per 100,000, B: DALYs rate


Figure: Figure 2: Age wise Distribution of Pancreatic Cancer Attributable to High BMI in 38 OECD Countries in 1990, 2000, 2021

Disclosures:
Nayanika Tummala indicated no relevant financial relationships.
Chandana Tummala indicated no relevant financial relationships.
Deepika Sanapala indicated no relevant financial relationships.
Jay Patel indicated no relevant financial relationships.
Drumadala Gajbhiye indicated no relevant financial relationships.
Uma Shailendri Rayudu indicated no relevant financial relationships.
Jeel Patel indicated no relevant financial relationships.
Pragathi Munnangi indicated no relevant financial relationships.
Shivam Kalra indicated no relevant financial relationships.
Gunjan Kochhar indicated no relevant financial relationships.
Hardik Dineshbhai Desai indicated no relevant financial relationships.

Nayanika Tummala, MD¹, Chandana Tummala, MBBS², Deepika Sanapala, MBBS³, Jay Patel, MBBS⁴, Drumadala I. Gajbhiye, MBBS⁵, Uma Shailendri Rayudu, MBBS⁶, Jeel Patel, MBBS⁷, Pragathi Munnangi, MD⁸, Shivam Kalra, MBBS, MHA⁹, Gunjan Kochhar, MBBS¹⁰, Hardik Dineshbhai Desai, MBBS¹¹. P4309 - Disproportionate Escalation in Pancreatic Cancer Burden Attributable to High BMI in 38 OECD Countries: Trends by Age, Gender, and Country, 1990–2021, ACG 2025 Annual Scientific Meeting Abstracts. Phoenix, AZ: American College of Gastroenterology.